Monsoon forecast: A case for optimism

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Monsoon rains are a welcome guest in the Southwest, helping to suppress scorching temperatures and delivering nearly half of the yearly rainfall for parts of Arizona. (Photo by Zack Guido)

The official monsoon forecast for the Southwest looks to be more vigorous than average, with a strong beginning and end. The season begins in July and runs through September.

The North American monsoon, the fickle phenomenon that is the summer rainy season in the Southwest, is forecast to be more vigorous than average, with a strong beginning and end. During most years, the July through September rainy season forecast for Arizona and New Mexico is no better than a coin flip. But not this summer, when increasing confidence has caused forecasters to paint a more optimistic picture – good news for a region that has been caught in the throes of severe drought for more than 18 months.
"The ecosystem is so tuned up to summer moisture that an early, consistent monsoon can stimulate a robust growing season and provide short-term drought relief," said Mike Crimmins, a climate extension specialist at the University of Arizona.
Crimmins, along with other UA and national experts, share the methodologies and challenges in forecasting the upcoming monsoon season. 
Forecasting challengesForecasting the monsoon is no easy task. Experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, known as the CPC, mine 41 different analysis tools, from global climate models that incorporate atmospheric physics to historical relationships between rainfall and the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural force that influences climate and weather around the globe.
In May, conflicting evidence in many of these tools created doubt about the strength and onset of the 2012 summer rains, resulting in an "equal chances" forecast that the monsoon would be above, below or near average.
"I tried hard to put something on the map because we know most people think [equal chances] is a non-forecast," said Jon Gottschalck, head of forecast operations at the CPC. "When I was making [the forecast in May], the signals were all over the place."

Uncertainty in the monsoon is the norm. The CPC has stamped an equal chances forecast on the Southwest in 12 of the last 17 years. Part of the forecasting challenge lies in geography: Arizona and New Mexico sit on the northern fringes of the core North American monsoon region, which is centered over the Sierra Madre Occidental in northwest Mexico. As a result, many climate factors come into play and cause high year-to-year and month-to-month variability. 
"Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, snow cover in the Rocky Mountains, the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, dry conditions in the Midwest and tropical storm activity have all been stated to influence the monsoon during different times and places of the season," Crimmins said.
Optimistic outlooksIn June, forecast models and other analysis tools became strong enough to slightly nudge the optimism of CPC forecasters.
"Our main climate model has been doing very well in recent years and has shown some accuracy in forecasting the monsoon during the first month," said David Unger, a CPC meteorologist. "There is some indication that July will be above average, and even if the final two months are average, there is still a good chance for a wet monsoon."
It is still a cautious forecast; the odds are only slightly better than equal chances that about half of Arizona and New Mexico will get a healthy dousing. Also, the CPC model has shown little accuracy forecasting August and September with more than a 30-day lead time, and so these months remain a black box to the CPC.
"Monsoon forecasting over the season is so difficult," Gottschalck said. "July through September is a long period, and a lot can happen. Anything early on could be completely outweighed by the final two months."
Despite CPC uncertainty in much of the monsoon, a strong start favors an above average season. Another forecast, based on past summers that most resemble current and expected conditions, also bolsters this outlook.
"The bottom line is that when we look at our analog forecast, it is for a wet July, a so-so August and a wet September," said Art Douglass, professor and chair of the department of atmospheric sciences at Creighton University.
Douglass, who has been forecasting the monsoon since 1977, developed this outlook by analyzing 12 variables that span the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, including sea surface temperatures, sea level pressure, pressure levels in the atmosphere, and tropical convection.
Five summers on record –1984, 1986, 2001, 2006 and 2008 – had very similar conditions to those in June. When combined, most of Arizona and New Mexico received more than 110 percent of average during these summers.
"When you composite these years, it's a pretty optimistic forecast for rain," Douglass said.
Monsoon by monthThe strings guiding Douglass' forecast are tethered to conditions in the Midwest and Pacific Ocean. Research in the late 1980s, for example, found a strong correlation between dry conditions in the Midwest, centered over Iowa, and wet weather over the Southwest and northern Mexico during the initial weeks of the summer rainy season.
"If you're interested in what's going on in the southwestern U.S., you also better be interested in what's going on in the Midwest," Douglass said. "And if you start looking at lags, it's the Midwest that seems to be behaving first."
The Midwest has been dry for the past three months, with many parts of the region receiving less than 70 percent of average. The sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been recently warming and also favor an early and wet onset.
"This year, sea surface temperatures look nearly identical to last year," said Christopher Castro, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the UA. "This would suggest an early to average start with average to above-average precipitation from late June to early July."
El Niño also figures into the mix. Sea surface temperatures are currently near average, but many El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasts project El Niño will develop by late summer.
During El Niño summers, conditions in August tend to be dry, Douglass said. Generally, this occurs because the subtropical jet intensifies as sea surface temperatures warm. This, in turn, pulls the monsoon high south, exposing southern Arizona and New Mexico to the dry northern side of this high.
As for September, El Niño conditions tend to increase the frequency of tropical Pacific Ocean storms, which can squeeze moist air from the Gulf of California into the Southwest. The intensifying subtropical jet and waning solar radiation also creates a conduit that helps steer storms into the region.
But there are no guarantees that El Niño will evolve in this manner, Douglass said. It's a forecast based solely on historical data.
Nonetheless, after two consecutive dry winters that sandwiched a lackluster monsoon for many parts of the Southwest, optimism is a welcome guest. If the forecasts prove accurate, the monsoon will help squelch dry conditions that have been plaguing the region.
The recent thunderstorms in southern Arizona on June 16 had a monsoon flavor, suggesting an early and strong beginning. The storms could also be a false start, as they sometimes have been in the past, proving again that the monsoon is a fickle phenomenon.

Something new, something bubbly

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LIFE'S OUTTAKES
By Daris HowardGazette Contributor
            When I answered the phone, I recognized the voice on the other end as belonging to one of the executive secretaries at the university where I work.
            “Professor Howard,” she said, “I understand that you know Russian?”
            “I have studied it for two years,” I responded, “but I’m not sure that constitutes knowing it.”
            “That’s better than most,” she replied. “You have probably heard that we have a girls’ choir coming from Novosibirsk, Russia, and I’m sure you know about Novosibirsk.”
            I told her that I had heard about the choir, and did indeed know of Novosibirsk. Novosibirsk, a large city deep in Siberia, consisted almost entirely of scientists and their families. Most of the work done there was secretive and, therefore, it had been a closed city. Very few outsiders were allowed in, and almost no citizens were allowed out. But with the fall of the Berlin Wall, and democratic changes, that city was opening up.
            “Well, we have run into a slight problem,” the secretary continued. “These girls have almost never been outside of Novosibirsk. The outside world will be very different to them. Instead of putting them up in hotels, we hoped to have hosts families that could show them what we are like, and perhaps share some of the fun things from our country with them. Since you have had a little Russian and could communicate with them, we were wondering if you might host some of them.” 
            I talked to my wife, and we agreed that it might be fun, especially since we had teenage daughters of our own. So the university scheduled for us to have four of the girls stay with us.
            We planned a lot for the day. Our daughters helped us decide that the foods should be pizza, lasagna, Twinkies, and Ding Dongs. We bought them each a shirt that had “Idaho” on it, and we also prepared lots of fun activities.
            The evening finally arrived, and the whole family went to pick them up. When we met the girls that would be staying with us, our children were not ready for the kiss on the cheek they used as a greeting. Even I, knowing that was their custom, had not prepared myself.
            That night we had a big pizza party, and, of course, we had lots of pop. When we first showed them the pop, the girls were slightly concerned. “Vodka?” one of them asked. I shook my head and tried to tell them it was pop. “Nyet. Eta soda’” (No. It is soda).
            One girl smiled. “Oh. Coca-Cola.” I learned she had tasted that once on a short trip away from home. We opened all sorts of pop so they could taste them. The girl who had tried Coca Cola poured a full glass from one of them, and she gulped it down. Suddenly she let out a huge, uncontrollable burp and started to giggle. That convinced the other girls it was vodka for sure. But after some time, with the first girl’s urging, and due to the fact she didn’t appear drunk, other than burping and giggling, they all eventually tried some.
            Having never had anything like it before, it had an especially profound effect on them. They would try to hold the burp in only to have it come out their nose. One of them, speaking in Russian, said “If I don’t burp, my nose does.”
            All of our other activities went out the window as we, instead, spent the evening letting them drink lots of pop, burp, and laugh while we laughed at their delight.
            As a group they drank three two-liter pitchers of pop. When it was time to go to bed, we passed around the Twinkies and Ding Dongs. The delight in each girl’s eyes as she bit into them was well worth the expense.
            They all hugged us good night, and then one said, in broken English, “America funny place. I much like.”
            And with that they went to bed, only to learn the other effect of a lot of pop - being in the bathroom most of the night.

 (Daris Howard, award-winning, syndicated columnist, playwright, and author, can be contacted at daris@darishoward.com; or visit his website at http://www.darishoward.com)

Real patriots pay their fair share

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By Robert ReichRobert Reich's Blogreadersupportednews.org 26 June 12
ecently I publicly debated a regressive Republican who said Arizona and every other state should use whatever means necessary to keep out illegal immigrants. He also wants English to be spoken in every classroom in the nation, and the pledge of allegiance recited every morning. "We have to preserve and protect America," he said. "That's the meaning of patriotism."
To my debating partner and other regressives, patriotism is about securing the nation from outsiders eager to overrun us. That's why they also want to restore every dollar of the $500 billion in defense cuts scheduled to start in January.
Yet many of these same regressives have no interest in preserving or protecting our system of government. To the contrary, they show every sign of wanting to be rid of it.In fact, regressives in Congress have substituted partisanship for patriotism, placing party loyalty above loyalty to America.
The GOP's highest-ranking member of Congress has said his "number one aim" is to unseat President Obama. For more than three years congressional Republicans have marched in lockstep, determined to do just that. They have brooked no compromise.
They couldn't care less if they mangle our government in pursuit of their partisan aims. Senate Republicans have used the filibuster more frequently in this Congress than in any congress in history.
House Republicans have been willing to shut down the government and even risk the full faith and credit of the United States in order to get their way.
Regressives on the Supreme Court have opened the floodgates to unlimited money from billionaires and corporations overwhelming our democracy, on the bizarre theory that money is speech under the First Amendment and corporations are people.
Regressive Republicans in Congress won't even support legislation requiring the sources of this money-gusher be disclosed.
They've even signed a pledge - not of allegiance to the United States, but of allegiance to Grover Norquist, who has never been elected by anyone. Norquist's "no-tax" pledge is interpreted only by Norquist, who says closing a tax loophole is tantamount to raising taxes and therefore violates the pledge.
True patriots don't hate the government of the United States. They're proud of it. Generations of Americans have risked their lives to preserve it. They may not like everything it does, and they justifiably worry when special interests gain too much power over it. But true patriots work to improve the U.S. government, not destroy it.
But regressive Republicans loathe the government - and are doing everything they can to paralyze it, starve it, and make the public so cynical about it that it's no longer capable of doing much of anything. Tea Partiers are out to gut it entirely. Norquist says he wants to shrink it down to a size it can be "drowned in a bathtub."
When arguing against paying their fair share of taxes, wealthy regressives claim "it's my money." But it's their nation, too. And unless they pay their share America can't meet the basic needs of our people. True patriotism means paying for America.
So when regressives talk about "preserving and protecting" the nation, be warned: They mean securing our borders, not securing our society. Within those borders, each of us is on our own. They don't want a government that actively works for all our citizens.
Their patriotism is not about coming together for the common good. It is about excluding outsiders who they see as our common adversaries.

---

Robert Reich is Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California at Berkeley. He has served in three national administrations, most recently as secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton. He has written thirteen books, including "Locked in the Cabinet," "Reason," "Supercapitalism," "Aftershock," and his latest e-book, "Beyond Outrage." His 'Marketplace' commentaries can be found on publicradio.com and iTunes.

$65 million in Rx savings for AZ Medicare

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As a result of the Affordable Care Act, seniors and people with disabilities in Arizona have saved a total of $65,803,605 on prescription drugs since the law was enacted.  The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) also released data today showing that in the first five months of 2012, 12,981 people with Medicare in Arizona saved a total of $8,921,509 on prescription drugs in “donut hole” coverage gap for an average of $687 in savings this year.
“Thanks to the health care law, millions of people with Medicare have been paying less for prescription drugs,” said CMS Acting Administrator Marilyn Tavenner.  “The law is helping people with Medicare lower their medical costs, and giving them more resources to stay healthy.  By 2020, the donut hole will be fully closed thanks to the Affordable Care Act.”
Nationwide, since the Affordable Care Act was passed, more than 5,254,000 people with Medicare have saved over $3.7 billion on prescription drugs in the donut hole.  This includes new data for the first five months of 2012, when more than 745,000 people with Medicare saved an average of $651 on the prescription drugs, for a total of $485.3 million in savings.
These savings are automatically applied to drugs that people with Medicare purchase, after they hit the Medicare Part D prescription drug coverage gap or “donut hole.”
People with Medicare who hit the donut hole in 2010 received a one-time $250 rebate.  In 2011, people with Medicare began receiving a 50 percent discount on covered brand name drugs and 7 percent coverage of generic drugs in the donut hole.  This year, Medicare coverage for generic drugs in the coverage gap has risen to 14 percent.  Coverage for both brand name and generic drugs in the gap will continue to increase over time until 2020, when the coverage gap will no longer exist.  
For more information on how the Affordable Care Act closes the Medicare drug benefit coverage gap “donut hole,” please visit: http://www.healthcare.gov/law/features/65-older/drug-discounts/index.html
For State-by-State information on the amount of savings people with Medicare have received in the donut hole, please visit: https://www.cms.gov/Plan-PaymentCached

Scalia's dissent says Brewer didn't win

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FROM TODAY'S AZ REPUBLIC
Letter to the Editor:"How you know you didn't win on SB1070"
To Jan, Russell, John and David and all the other's trying to spin the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling on Arizona's Senate Bill 1070.
If you are a conservative and Antonin Scalia writes the dissenting opinion in a Supreme Court case of yours, you didn't win.
Jim ManosGlendale
You don't have to get it from us.  You can get your own subscription to the Republic by calling 1-800-332-6733.  It's the best newspaper value in the Rim Country.

Kenyans Don't Always Want Your Old Clothes

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I believe in recycling. But we kid ourselves sometimes about how effective it is.

Take those bins for recycling plastic bags that are in supermarkets nowadays. Are they really about saving plastic stock, or are they chiefly a defense against anti-plastic bag laws.

"Look, we care! We're recycling!"

Supposedly they go into plastic decking. or into more plastic bags, but if the market dropped—especially in China, which is entering its own recession—they would probably going to landfill while we keep stuffing more of them into the collection boxes.

Then there's clothes. We drop them at Goodwill or Salvation Army or ARC, knowing that people with little money to spend—or college students looking for something ironically retro—will buy them.

Or not. The fact is, there are more used garments than buyers. So they go to a different kind of recycler.

There are thousands of secondhand textile processors in the United States today, mostly small family businesses, many of them several generations old. I visited Trans- Americas Trading Co., a third- generation textile recycler in Clifton, N.J., which employs 85 people and processes close to 17 million pounds of used clothing a year. Inside Trans-Americas, there is a wall of cubed-up clothing five bales tall and more than 20 bales long. “This is liter­ally several hundred thousand pounds of textile waste, and we bring in two trailer loads of this much every day,” Trans-Americas president Eric Stubin told me. The volume they process has gone up over the years alongside our consumption of clothing.

Without textile recyclers, charities would be totally beleaguered and forced to throw away everything that couldn’t be sold. Charities might even have to turn us away. The only benefit to this doomsday scenario is that our clothes would pile up in our house or in landfills, finally forcing us to face down just how much clothing waste we cre­ate. . . . . After the prized vintage is plucked out and the outcasts are sent to the fiber and wiping rag companies, the remaining clothing is sorted, shrink-wrapped, tied up, baled, and sold to used-clothing ven­dors around the world. The secondhand clothing industry has been export-oriented almost since the introduction of mass-produced gar­ments. And by one estimate, used clothing is now the United States’ number one export by volume, with the overwhelming majority sent to ports in sub-Saharan Africa. 

But even poor Africans do not want or cannot use it all. Now when every little kid in the smallest village in the bush has a Chicago Bulls shirt, what happens to the rest?

Read the rest.

More New Mexico Barbies

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Socorro Barbie: Now an occasional tour guide to the Trinity Site, she comes with a roadhouse music CD and a waitress uniform. Favorite pastime is to park out by the Very Large Array, drink, and get nostalgic or regretful depending on circumstances.  Optional Ford Ranger pickup and Barbie Dream Quonset available.

Los Alamos Barbie: This Barbie is a homemaker who makes Martha Stewart look lazy.  Head of the PTA and the carpool driver to all after school events. Comes with a maxed-out Hobby Lobby credit card, a Dodge Caravan, and your choice of either Workaholic Ken or Pussywhipped Ken. Used to be classified, but was mistakenly leaked a few years ago.

Española Barbie: This recently paroled Barbie comes with a 9mm handgun, bowie knife, ‘78 El Camino with tinted windows, and a DIY meth-lab kit. El Camino may be traded at any time for a Chevy lowrider. This model is only available after dark and can only be bought with cash, preferably small bills.  Unless you are a cop. Then we don't know what you are talking about.  Hairspray and fake fingernails sold separately.

Read the rest.

Earlier models here.

Foxy Blog Stew

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Red fox checks to see if the dogs are behind the fence.

• Red foxes are native to North America, yet some were introduced from European stock to the Atlantic seaboard. What do genetics say about the result?

• Please press "1" if you can no longer keep your dog.

• Fiighting fire in the 21st century—an operations chief explains strategy on the Little Bear Fire in SE New Mexico (9 min. video). Everything and everyone is a "resource," of course, and "IA" (initial attack) is used as verb. Still a good look at current Forest Service thinking.

The Old Mose Memorial Tour

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Black Mountain. Old Mose was killed just over the horizon and outside the frame to the left.

The Jeep rocked and pitched as we rolled slowly down a two-track dirt road coming off Black Mountain.

I wondered if Wharton Pigg's ranch wagon lurched down this same drainage — or one parallel to it — laden with a thousand pounds of dead grizzly bear, headed for his ranch, the Stirrup, still the largest in Fremont County.

With it went several ranch hands and James Anthony of Cañon City, who had shot the bear they called Old Mose, and the dogs who tracked him on Anthony and Pigg's final hunt: Ray, Dummit, Penny, Ginger, Ring, Prince, Jet, Gale, Zepher, Dowey, and Bluff, no doubt with tails high, knowing that they were Important and Successful Dogs.

It was the afternoon of April 30, 1904.

Old Mose, the Denver Post reported a few days later, was the "King of the Grizzlies." He was 45 years old, had killed three men (or four, or five) and countless livestock. The Cañon City Clipper called him "the largest and oldest bear criminal of Fremont County." He was the "terror of stockmen."  He ranged clear to the San Juan Mountains, over eleven Colorado counties, said the Post.  Moving more slowly, as befits a magazine, Outdoor Life, then published in Colorado, hyped Old Mose's reputation more later that year.

None of it was true. Except that he was a grizzly bear, and he might have killed two Hereford bulls — but no people.

According to later lab analysis of his teeth, he was 10 or 12 years old, but he was blamed for deaths occurring as far back as 1883.

The Stirrup Ranch today, with a newer, grander residence.

His range covered only parts of two counties, Park and Fremont, and with his death the population of grizzlies in Colorado, perhaps 800 in 1880, continued to plunge until it flickered out (as far as is officially known) in 1979.

When I lived Cañon City, I read and heard about Old Mose, the terrible mankiller. Periodically the Canon City Daily Record trotted out the story, and it was in the little local-history books as well.

But one writer had gone back to the original sources, walked the ground, and even arranged for the Arizona Fish and Game Department to analyze a tooth taken from Old Mose's head, now at the University of California, Berkeley.

Stirrup Ranch cattle. Waugh Mountain in background.

That was James E. Perkins, author of Old Mose: The King of the Grizzlies (2002). It contains a couple of errors (black bears do not have retractable claws), but it still ranks far above many works of local history that I have seen, because Perkins' narrative is supported by actual research instead of merely copying.

He makes a convincing case that the lives of at least three bears were conflated to produce the legend of Old Mose — and his argument is worth reading.

It is from him, to give one small example, that I got the names of the dogs. As Abbey Quillen said in her review for Colorado Central, it is "easy to read in one sitting, but you’ll probably find yourself flipping back through it again and again."

I have indeed been flipping through it again and again, for last week M. and I decided to tour Old Mose's home ground, at least by Jeep. Call it a mini-staff ride.

He deserves a shrine. Instead, I left a geocache on the nearest county road. So far, no one has looked for it.

Distracted by the Waldo Fire

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Webcam shot from downtown Manitou with smoke from the Waldo Fire.

Of all the fires burning in Colorado today, the out-of-control Waldo Fire west of Manitou Springs, Colo., has the most of M.'s and my attention.

Manitou Springs is where we met and where we lived for our first years together — a total of fourteen years for her, eight for me. It is a still a sort of home town for us — a Charles Rocky painting of the town hangs on the wall of the room where I am writing this.

The idea that the town is completely evacuated (not to mention Cascade, Chipeta Park, Green Mountain Falls, and the rest) is completely astounding. Nothing like this ever before, despite its location in a forested canyon.

Add to that the fact that well could be an arson fire, perhaps set by the same serial arsonist who has been setting fires in Teller County, immediately to the west.

Residents banned from forest, too

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Each time it becomes necessary to implement a closure order on portions or all of the Payson Ranger District for public safety due to extreme fire conditions, the same issue seems to arise. Please note that the current closure order that went into effect at 8 am on Thursday, June 21, 2012, applies to owners and lessees of private lands as well as those wishing to visit public lands on the Payson Ranger District.
 
     In simple terms that means that owners and lessees of private lands may only travel to and from their private lands that are located within the described closure boundaries. Owners and lessees with private lands, however, must adhere to everything written in the closure order. All prohibitions in the closure order apply to those wishing to visit public lands on the Payson Ranger District, as well as the owners and lessees of private lands.
     We appreciate your patience, understanding, and cooperation in respecting the necessary closure order in place during our current extreme fire danger. As soon as conditions warrant, the closure order will be lifted. Many thanks.
     Yours for a fire-safe Rim Country
Gary RobertsPayson Ranger District

The Difference Between a Criminal Traffic and a Civil Traffic Case

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Criminal Traffic Violations vs. Civil Traffic Violations in Arizona

There are many differences in a civil traffic violaion vs. a criminal traffic violation. Civil violations are very different from criminal violations. You may find the below list is helpful in contrasting some of the differences between a criminal traffic vioaltion and a civil traffic violation in Arizona.

Criminal Traffic Violation

1. Handled in Criminal Court
2. Trial, possibly by a Jury
3. Rules of Evidence apply
4. Prosecutor is involved
5. You are subject to Cross-Examination by the Prosecutor
6. Standard of Proof = Beyond a Reasonable Doubt
7. The Rule of Exclusion applies
8. Discovery Rules apply
9. Jail is possible
10. You may be placed on Probation
11. Right to Counsel may apply
12. Mens Rea may be involved
13. Misdemeanor
14. Conviction will result in a Criminal Record
15. You may be arrested
16. May be found Guilty of a Crime
17. Failing to Appear = Warrant

Civil Traffic Violation

1. Handled in Traffic Court
2. Hearing only
3. Rules of Evidence do not apply
4. Generally there is no Prosecutor
5. You are not subject to Cross-Examination by the Officer
6. Standard of Proof = Preponderance of Evidence
7. The Rule of Exclusion does not apply
8. Discovery Rules do not apply
9. Jail is not a possibility
10. Probation is not a possiblity
11. Right to Counsel does not apply
12. No Mens Rea required
13. Civil Infraction
14. May result in a Driving Record (MVD) only
14. You cannot be arrested
16. You may be found Responsible for a Civil Infraction
17. Failing to Appear = Default


THE LAW OFFICE OF KARL A. MUELLER, PLC
Website: http://www.AzTrialLawyer.com/
Call (602) 697-8761
Free 24 Hour Consultations

Defensive Driving School vs. Traffic Survival School

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Defensive Driving School (DDS) vs. Traffic Survival School (TSS) in Arizona. What is the Difference?

In Arizona it is important to discuss Defensive Driving School (DSS) vs. Traffic Survival School (TSS). People often refer to “traffic school” when they are referring to two very different courses. In Arizona, Defensive Driving School (DDS) is different from Traffic Survival School (TSS). You may be eligible to take a Defensive Driving School (DDS) course to remove a violation from your driving record otherwise known as your Motor Vehicle Record (MVR).

To be eligible for Defensive Driving School (DDS):
1) You must not have attended a Defensive Driving School (DDS) course with the past 2 years.
2) No one must have been seriously injured or killed in the incident that led to the violation you wish to remove by attending the Defensive Driving School (DDS) course.
3) You must not have a Commercial Driver’s License (CDL).

Attending a Defensive Driving School (DDS) course is typically done to remove a violation from one’s driving record and is voluntary and not required to maintain your privilege to drive.

Traffic Survival School (TSS) however is different story. Traffic Survival School (TSS) is ordered by a court or the Motor Vehicles Division (MVD) as a result of being found guilty or responsible for certain violations or a combination of multiple violations. There are many court adjudications that will trigger being required to attend Traffic Survival School (TSS). Some examples are criminal driving behavior, an accumulation of points due to multiple violations, more than one violation by a teenage driver or a single red light violation.

Important to note is the fact that if you plead responsible or guilty, or are found responsible or guilty for a violation that will result in being ordered to complete Traffic Survival School (TSS), you must drive carefully for the next 2 years. Arizona drivers should take note of the fact that once you have been required to attend a Traffic Survival School (TSS) course, any moving violation for the next 2 years will trigger a minimum 3 month suspension of your privilege to drive.


THE LAW OFFICE OF KARL A. MUELLER, PLC
Website: http://www.AzTrialLawyer.com/
Call (602) 697-8761
Free 24 Hour Consultations

Consequences of a DUI with Kids in the Car?

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DUI with Kids in the Car (Aggravated DUI) in Arizona

Many people are surprised to find themselves charged with a felony after being stopped and charged with their very first DUI. In Arizona if the State can prove the elements of DUI and additionally that you had a child under fifteen (15) years of age in the vehicle at the time, then you will find yourself facing a felony. Consequences of a felony conviction can negatively impact many aspects of your life. (see Consequences of a Felony Conviction in this blog)

A DUI with kids in the car is called the crime of Aggravated DUI. It is also known as Aggravated DUI with kids in the car, Aggravated DUI with children, or Aggravated DUI a class 6 felony. There are two other types of Aggravated DUI, but this particular type is a class 6 felony in Arizona. In Arizona, a class 6 felony is the least serious class of felony, but a felony none the less.

A felony is usually defined as a crime that is punishable by imprisonment for more than a year, or a crime that is punishable by death or a prison sentence served in a state penitentiary.

Beyond mandatory fines, classes, jail, probation and possible prison, consequences of a felony conviction may include:

Loss of the right to possess a firearm
Loss of the right to vote in elections
Immigration ineligibility
Ineligibility for elected office
Ineligibility for professional licenses
Ineligibility for housing
Ineligibility to serve as a juror
Ineligibility for public benefits
Ineligibility for educational benefits
Negative impact on parental rights
Negative impact on divorce proceedings
Negative impact on employment
Negative impact on credit
Criminal Record
Criminal Registry
Negative social stigma

In Arizona, a conviction for Aggravated DUI with kids in the car will also lead to the Motor Vehicle Division (MVD) revoking your driver’s license for a minimum of three (3) years. A revoked license means you cannot drive at all until your license is re-instated. If your license is revoked for Aggravated DUI with kids in the car, you are not eligible to apply for re-instated driving privileges for a minimum of three (3) years.


THE LAW OFFICE OF KARL A. MUELLER, PLC
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Driver's License Suspension vs. Revocation

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Driver's License Suspension vs. Revocation in Arizona

In Arizona is there a difference between your driver’s license being suspended vs. revoked? What is the difference between a driver’s license suspension and a revocation?

In Arizona, it is important to understand that driving is a privilege governed by the State through the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) Motor Vehicles Division (MVD). Driving is not a right. Arizona courts hear both civil and criminal matters involving crimes and violations that may affect your driving record. Your driving record in turn may then affect the status of your license leading to suspension or revocation.

Suspension
In Arizona, a driver’s license suspension is the temporary removal of your license or privilege to drive. This is an action taken by Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) Motor Vehicles Division (MVD) after a review of your driving record also referred to as your Motor Vehicle Record (MVR). If your license is suspended, then it must be reinstated before you can legally drive. A driver’s license suspension will remain in effect until the prescribed time period of the suspension is served and you make an application for reinstatement and pay the applicable reinstatement fee.

Revocation
Re-establishing your ability to drive after a revocation is more difficult than a suspension. In Arizona, a driver’s license revocation is the complete removal of your license or privilege to drive. Your license will remain revoked until you apply for a new license. As part of the application for a new license, you must submit and pass an investigation into your driving record. All outstanding obligations must be satisfied in order to qualify for re-instatement of your privilege to drive.

Suspension vs. Revocation
A license suspension is for a definite period of time. With a suspension, once the suspension period has elapsed, your license is eligible for re-instatement. During your suspension period you may be eligible for restricted privileges. A license revocation on the other hand is the complete removal of your license. After a revocation, you must apply for a new license and during the revocation you are not eligible for restricted privileges.


THE LAW OFFICE OF KARL A. MUELLER, PLC
Website: www.AzTrialLawyer.com
Call (602) 697-8761
Free 24 Hour Consultations

JinJinespecially when the viscosity materials handling, appropriate chooses jaw crusher

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Spinning back crusher and jaw crusher, has its advantages and disadvantages compared with productivity, spinning back crusher, power consumption, work is relatively stable, little vibration big crushing ratio, product of granularity, any party can give the ore, and can be packed with advantages for ore, defect is big, fuselage height equipment fee, require a higher plant, machinery and bulky, inconvenience handling, unfavorable crushing viscous ore, operation and maintenance is relatively complicated. By contrast, jaw crusher has simple structure, manufacture of low cost, convenient maintenance, reliable operation, high small, easy configuration machine for water high viscosity, not big ore advantages, disadvantages is blocked productivity, low power consumption has big, vibration larger, broken than small, product size uniform, not enough for full tiberium. cone crusher



Based on the above contrast, mountain neville mining machinery Co., LTD department shut experts advise customer at home and abroad, in choosing crushing equipment according to different situations, conducts a comprehensive analysis of the comparison. General large concentrator multi-purpose spinning back crusher. Medium and small concentrator, especially when the viscosity materials handling, appropriate chooses jaw crusher .
More info:http://www.strongcrusher.com 

JinJin:The above all kinds of mineral processing

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According to the principle of the dressing equipment and function different, gravity separation can be divided into the following categories. Symons cone crusher
(1) ore washing by mechanical force, water conservancy scour scrub, by clay bond/cemented the ore, broken, dissociation of fine clay and break in the process. It is gravity separation shop help role. In the crude ore containing mud (0.074 mm)-higher (more than 10%), often need to wash the ore.

(2) hydraulic classification according to different particle size and density of ore particles in medium (general) for water in the different rates of precipitation, ore particle group is divided into two or more than two particle levels of the process. It is also gravity separation shop help ball mill homework.

(3) jig dressing using vertical pulse medium flow make mine, and particle swarm loose density stratified according to, so that the different density mineral separated from the process.

(4) chute dressing use of water to flow along the inclined plane for mineral separation process.

(5) wave bed in a sloping dressing is wide on the bed, bed with asymmetric reciprocating motion and thin layer cant role mineral water supply in the process. General to ore size 3 ~ 0.037 mm.

(6) heavy medium dressing use as well as the principle that the different density of mineral in heavy liquid or heavy suspension of separated from each other. Sometimes in choose don't work with this method to remove a lot before (40% ~ 50%) of the gangue to increase production capacity. General feeding size in the 75 mm below.

The above all kinds of mineral processing, are a different density for the main basis. But it must be pointed out that in other conditions being at the same time, along with granular degrees, according to reduce crazy the density of separation difficulty will be increased. Therefore, in order to enable the mineral grains by as much as possible, and the material in the chosen separation density should be fine particle removal don't before, or grade level into a narrow size range of level.

Fine grain by particles of the material level quality, and so are less in the gravity field according to the density of granularity separation or speed and accuracy reduced greatly, fine particle metal loss caused by level. To improve the microgranular level technology can be used, the recovery in centrifugal field for principle of gravity separation equipment and various kinds of force of the combined action of gravity separation equipment, such as processing machine, centrifugal heavy medium hydrocyclones, washing machine and spiral ore spiral chute, rotating spiral chute, etc .Impact stone crusher
More info:http://www.strongcrusher.com

JinJin:Reasonable feasibility of processing tailings of the six programs

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Reasonable feasibility of processing tailings of the six programs are as follows (1) First tailings resources to try to do a comprehensive recycling of useful components, advanced technology and reasonable process for re-election to the end of it, to maximize the recovery of useful components in the tailings, which can further reduce the tailings number.Jaw crusher for sale
Some of the non-concentrator tailings direction. (2) mine tailings as underground mining gob filling material, filling material is sand or water filled cement aggregate. Tailings as a mined-out area of ​​the filling material used, the filling process is the best all tailings filling process, but research is still at an experimental stage. Used in production of coarse tailings are used as part of the mined-out area of ​​the filling material. Concentrator tailings discharge section in preparation for evacuation of tailings grading, send some of the sand underground mined-out area, and some into the fine-grained tailings dumps. This method of tailings disposal at home and abroad have been applied. (3) with the tailings as a raw material for building materials: production of cement, silicate tailings bricks, tiles, aerated concrete, cast stone, refractories, glass, ceramic, concrete aggregate, glass, clinker tiles , foam glass and foam materials. (4) with the tailings, road construction, road materials, non-slip material, coastal land reclamation and so on. vertical impact crusher(5) in the tailings piled field casing farmland, growing crops or planting trees. (6) there is a special construction of the tailings pile of tailings database, which is the majority of the concentrator is currently the most widely used method of tailings disposal. 
More info:http://www.crusherbusiness.com

Teens on the Road: The Process to Getting a Driver's License - Part One

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Having a teenager begin to drive can be stressful enough; add in trying to understand the process to get them their first driver's license, and the experience can be downright frustrating.  In this three part series we are going to discuss the process, the steps you need to take, and the documents you will need along the way. 
The first thing you need to know is that it is a three stage process referred to as the New Mexico Graduated Licensing System.
Stage One: Instructional Permit
To get an Instructional Permit, a teen must be at least 15 years old, enrolled in Driver’s Education and go into a MVD Express office with the following documents: 
·         Driver Education Referral Card·        Original State Issued Birth Certificate·         Original Social Security Card·         One Proof of New Mexico Residency·         A Parent/Legal Guardian must accompany new teen driver
Once the permit has been received it must be held for a minimum of six months.  The Driver will be issued a maximum of two Instructional Permits.  The Driver must drive with an adult 21 or older who has been licensed for a minimum of three years.  The Driver must also complete a detailed log of at least 50 hours of supervised driving practice, in which 10 of these hours must be at night.  A parent or guardian must certify in writing that these hours have been completed.  The Driver will need to maintain a clean driving record for the 90 days preceding the application of stage two - the provisional license. 
Effective June 17, Senate Bill 9, enacted by the 2011 Legislature, amends Sections 66-5-8 and 66-5-9 NMSA 1978 to provide that:The six-month minimum period for which an individual is required to hold an instruction permit before obtaining a provisional license is extended by 30 days for each traffic violation, committed during the time the individual was driving with the instruction permit, for which the individual was convicted or adjudicated delinquent.

Teens on the Road: The Process to Getting a Driver's License - Part Two

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In Part One of “Teens on the Road” we discussed the process of obtaining an Instructional Permit.  Today we will discuss stage two of the New Mexico Graduated Licensing System, the Provisional License.
Stage Two: The Provisional License
To obtain a Provisional License the teen driver must be at least 15 ½ years old, fully completed Stage One of the Graduated Licensing System, held a clean driving record for 90 days preceding the application of the Provisional License, and go into an MVD Express office with the following documents:

• Expired Instructional Permit
• 50 Hour Driving Log (must include a minimum of 10 hours of night driving)
• Certificate of Completion (from a driving school such as McGinnis School of Driving)
• Parent/Legal Guardian

In addition to the above items, if the teen driver does not hold a State issued Instructional Permit they must also bring in the following documents:

• Original State Issued Birth Certificate
• Original Social Security Card
• One Proof of New Mexico Residency

Once the Provisional License has been received it will need to be held for a minimum of one year or until the teen reaches the age of 18.  The teen driver may not have more than one passenger in the car under the age of 21 who is not an immediate family member.  The teen driver may not operate the car between the hours of midnight and 5:00 a.m. unless accompanied by a licensed driver who is 21 years or older.  Exceptions are permitted for school, employment, family and medical need, or religious functions.  During times of these exceptions the teen driver must carry a statement from the appropriate school, employer, Doctor, Religious Official or Parent/Legal Guardian.


Effective June 17, Senate Bill 9, enacted by the 2011 Legislature, amends Sections 66-5-8 and 66-5-9 NMSA 1978 to provide that:


The 12-month minimum period for which an individual is required to hold a provisional license before obtaining a regular driver's license is also extended by 30 days for each traffic violation, committed during the time the individual was driving with the provisional license, for which the individual was convicted or adjudicated delinquent.

Some Pine Strawberry subs told not to use water

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The Pine Strawberry Water Improvement District (PSWID) has issued a public notice warning customers in specified subdivisions not to use water "for any purposes, particularly drinking, cooking, or bathing, until further notice."

Affected subdivisions include Strawberry Mountains Shadows 1 and 2, Pine Mountain Acres, White Oaks Glen 1 and 2, Portals 1, Pine Creek Canyon, Valley View Home sites, Cool Pines Estates, Berry Hill, Payson Concrete, Cypress Hills, Strawberry Hollow, and Pine Wood Haven.  Bottled water is available at the PSWID office, 6306 W. Hardscrabble Road.

The notice also said that PSWID "is currently having difficulty maintaining a consistent supply of water in the system due to ... extreme temperatures and related water demands combined with some mechanical issues and water levels in source wells.  Customers are asked to "curtail water use as much as possible."

Sam Schwalm of Water for Pine Strawberry, a watchdog group, has not posted any information on the situation so far.  The Gazette Blog will keep you updated as this story unfolds.

Poco Fire activity decreases

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Poco Fire UpdateThursday, June 21 YOUNG, Ariz. – Fire activity decreased yesterday on the Poco fire. As a result of the work done overnight by firefighters, the fire is now 11,011 acres and 15 percent contained. Crews continue to hold and improve existing fire lines on the north, east and south sides of the fire. Today, crews will be watching for spot fires, holding the existing fire lines and mopping-up. On the southwest side of the fire on Forest Road 857, firefighters will be extending and reinforcing fire lines by continuing burn-out operations.During burn-out operations Wednesday, a firefighter sustained a burn to his neck and is being treated for his injuries.The twin 500 kV power lines owned by Arizona Public Service and Salt River Project that were impacted by the fire, have been re-energized.Smoke is widespread along the Mogollon Rim and will be visible to residents.  Two community meetings were held yesterday in Heber-Overgaard and Christopher Creek. Both meetings were well attended and local residents were updated on the current fire status.

(GLOBE, AZ)—The Gila County Board of Supervisors held an emergency meeting on Tuesday, June 19, 2012 to declare a State of Emergency within Gila County as a result of the Poco Fire, located on the Tonto National Forest approximately six (6) miles northeast of Young, Arizona.  A “State of Emergency” allows County Government to act more quickly and respond to the needs of the citizens during an event.  It gives the emergency management team a bit of extra latitude to deal with a situation quickly and with maximum coordination.
The Northern Arizona Incident Commander Matt Reidy asked the firefighters to “stay focused on the task at hand and safely accomplish the mission.” There are 731 firefighters assigned to the incident including 11 hotshot crews, six twenty-person crews, 22 engines, four dozers, 18 water tenders, and several helicopters.   FR 512 remains closed between FR 291 and FR 200, the Chamberlin Trail. In addition, a portion of the ranger district is closed east of FR 200, south of FR 291 and north of FR 512.For more information regarding forest recreation sites and fire restrictions, please contact the Tonto National Forest at 602 225-5200, or check online atwww.fs.usda.gov/tonto.# # #The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality is coordinating with the Incident Management Team to monitor smoke impacts in outlying areas. Visibility is an excellent measure of air quality. If visibility is ten miles or more, the air quality is good. Visibility of six to nine miles indicates moderate air quality. Three to five miles of visibility indicates conditions unhealthy for people who have respiratory ailments. One and a half to two and a half miles, the air quality is unhealthy. One to one and a quarter miles indicates the air quality is very unhealthy. If visibility due to smoke is less than a mile, the air quality is hazardous. Smoke-sensitive persons in affected areas may need to take action such as remaining indoors, using air conditioning, or temporarily moving to an unaffected area.

Tonto Forest area closures begin June 21

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      Payson, Ariz.(June 20, 2012) –Public safety concerns due to drought conditions, hot temperatures, and increased fire danger have resulted in two temporary area closures on the Tonto National Forest beginning at 8 a.m., Thursday, June 21.  The area closures are within the following boundaries:
1.     All National Forest System Lands, roads and trails described as follows: Beginning at Forest  Road 708 at the Fossil Springs Trailhead thence proceeding southeasterly along the power line corridor following the Mazatzal Wilderness Boundary; thence easterly along the power line corridor  to  the junction of Forest Trail 540 (FT540); thence easterly and southeasterly along the power line corridor to the Tonto Natural Bridge State Park; thence easterly along  Forest System Road 583 to State Highway 87; thence southerly following  State Highway 87 to the Intersection with State Highway 260;  thence easterly along State Highway 260 to the junction of the Colcord Road (Forest Road 291); thence easterly and southerly along FR 291 to Forest Road 512; thence northerly along FR 512 to the Forest boundary at the top of the Mogollon Rim; thence westerly along the Mogollon Rim and Tonto National Forest Boundary to the Fossil Springs Trailhead at Forest Road 708. 
2.     All National Forest System Lands, roads and trails within the Mt Ord, Four Peaks and Three Bar Wildlife Area, more specifically described as follows: bounded by Highway 87 on the west beginning at the intersection with Forest System Road 143; thence northerly along the eastern edge of State Highway 87 to the intersection with State Highway 188; thence southerly along the western edge of Highway 188 to the Salt River corridor; thence westerly along the north side of the Salt river corridor including the north shores of Apache Lake, Canyon Lake and Saguaro Lake to Cottonwood Creek; thence northerly along Cottonwood creek to the intersection with Forest System Road 401; continuing northerly on Forest System Road 401 to the intersection with Forest System Road 143; thence westerly on Forest System Road 143 terminating at the intersection with State Highway 87.
     Forest System Road 583 from State Highway 87 will remain open for access to Tonto Natural Bridge State Park. The Tonto Creek Fish Hatchery operated by the Arizona Game and Fish Department will be closed for public access.
     State Highway 87, State Highway 260, and State Highway 188 are open.
      County roads through the Tonto National Forest remain OPEN unless the road is specifically closed by the agency managing that road; all National Forest System roads and trails within the described area are closed. 
Exemptions to area closures are: 
Owners and lessees of private lands within the boundaries of the described areas. 
Persons accessing the RV Dump site on the west side of State Highway 188 at Cholla Bay.
“These area closures are to provide for firefighter and public safety during the extreme fire danger currently being experienced in Central Arizona,” stated Helen Graham, Acting Fire Staff Officer for the forest.  “These precautionary measures are intended to enhance our visitors’ quality recreation experiences. Most areas of the Tonto National Forest remain available for recreation activity, including all the Salt River system lakes.” 
Graham concluded:  “We continue to remind the public that all fireworks are prohibited on the forest at all times, and right now, under our current restrictions, target-shooting is prohibited throughout the forest.”                Violation of these restrictions is punishable by a fine of up to $5,000 for individuals, $10,000 for organizations, and imprisonment for up to six months. 
Forest Service officials continue to remind the public that wildfire potential conditions are extreme on the forest and that elevated fire restriction are in place.  No fireworks are allowed on the forest at any time.
For statewide road conditions and closures please go tohttp://www.az511.gov/ or dial 5-1-1 from any landline or mobile phone from anywhere in Arizona. From outside Arizona, dial 1-888-411-ROAD (7623) or 602-523-0244. 
For more information regarding forest recreation sites and fire restrictions, please contact the Tonto National Forest at (602) 225-5200, or check online at www.fs.usda.gov/tonto